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A strike on Iran is unlikely to take place this week, although tensions with Tehran have entered a particularly sensitive period and Washington is weighing its next moves, Israeli officials said Sunday.
In Jerusalem, Israeli officials tracked US maneuvers closely and described the relationship between Israel and America as strategic and ongoing. They cited gaps that complicated Israel’s planning.
These gaps included differences in available information, in how intentions were assessed, and in Israel’s ability to shape decisions in real time. Within weeks, discussions in Washington could lead to either a dramatic military decision or a diplomatic agreement with long-term regional implications.
For now, the prevailing assessment in Israel does not point to immediate US action, with officials speaking in terms of weeks rather than days. Still, they believe that if Washington ultimately chooses a military option, Israel might receive a warning on short notice.
Israeli defense officials said being informed on short notice posed a practical challenge. Readiness for a regional confrontation requires time for the IAF and air-defense systems, as well as preparation of the home front and diplomatic coordination with additional partners, they said.
When key information remains in Washington, Israel must close the intelligence and planning gaps on its own, sometimes relying on indirect indicators and operating with limited certainty, Israeli officials said.
US-Iran diplomacy and ballistic missiles
Beyond the question of a strike, Israeli officials focused on the direction of US-Iran diplomacy. The central concern, they said, was not that there would be an agreement, but that there would be a partial arrangement that addresses Iran’s nuclear program while leaving its ballistic-missile program outside the framework.
In Israel’s view, ballistic missiles represent an immediate and growing threat. The missiles strengthen Iran’s deterrence posture and could provide strategic cover even before Iran crossed any nuclear threshold, Israeli officials said. The issue repeatedly came up in discussions between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump, they said.
Iran’s position on missiles remains firm, according to an assessment cited in one report. Tehran expressed a willingness to discuss issues tied to sanctions relief and limited oversight mechanisms. At the same time, it regarded missiles as a sovereign capability and a tool meant to offset US and Israeli air superiority.
That approach, Israeli officials said, left Washington with a difficult choice between pressing for a broader deal that could collapse talks or settling for a narrower understanding that left missiles and Iran’s regional proxies outside any agreement.
Israeli officials also cited internal tensions inside Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was described as prioritizing ideological resolve and resisting any appearance of capitulation.
At the same time, other political and economic interests were seen as favoring sanctions relief and greater stability amid ongoing domestic pressures. Even so, Israeli sources said the ultimate authority remained with Khamenei, and that Tehran was likely to maintain clear redlines.
Either pathway carried risks, Israeli officials said. If military action were to commence, they expected Iran to seek a painful response while trying to avoid steps that would trigger a full-scale war.
If diplomacy produced a nuclear arrangement that did not address missiles, Israeli officials warned that Iran could continue improving range, accuracy, and launch capacity while benefiting from reduced economic pressure that expanded its operational freedom.
In Israel’s assessment, a delayed nuclear timeline would still leave the missile threat growing at its own pace until the two tracks converged.
Israel intensified efforts to influence US decision-making in recent weeks by presenting updated intelligence on Iran’s missile capabilities. The goal was to ensure that missiles remained central to any American decision, whether military or diplomatic, and to prevent a scenario in which a narrower agreement created new space for Iran to expand the most immediate threat Israel said it faced.
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