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The IDF air force’s attacks on more than 500 targets of Syria’s military assets in a 48-hour period this week since the fall of the Assad regime have permanently and radically altered the threat that any future Syrian regime can pose to the State of Israel, the IDF said on Thursday.
This means that in the worst-case scenario, if Syria’s new rulers, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), decide to be hostile to Israel, they will not be able to immediately threaten the Jewish state with anywhere near the kind of advanced and long-range weaponry which the Assad regime wielded.
Unveiling a slew of staggering statistics, the IDF noted that it destroyed over 90% of Syria’s advanced anti-aircraft missiles, especially the SA22 and SA17 systems, which were sometimes shooting down portions of Israeli attacks on the smuggling of Iranian weapons through the area. In total, about 85% of Syria’s air defenses were destroyed, including less advanced systems.
Next, the IDF said that Syria’s SU-22 and SU-24 aircraft squadrons were completely destroyed and in total, around 40% of the Syrian air force.
All the Syrian explosive drones were destroyed, and 390 significant Syrian firepower targets were destroyed by the air force.
IDF strikes on infrastructure and surface-to-air missile launchers in Syria, December 12, 2024 (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Besides these more active attack systems, the air force now has a stunning air superiority in Syrian airspace, which it could never have dreamed of as long as the Assad regime was intact because it has destroyed essentially all of Syria’s radar capabilities.
IDF sources said that the Syrians still have no idea what they have lost in terms of potential threats to Israel and that it could take them a significant amount of time to decipher this, especially given that the Syrian army, which was used to handling these weapons, melted away last weekend.
In a broader sense, the IDF said that it had destroyed around 80% of Syria‘s larger-scale firepower.
At the same time, IDF sources admitted that this number could be overly optimistic as there may be firepower items that Syria concealed underground, which the IDF did not find or succeed in striking.
Moreover, the IDF said that Syria now has only one still existing border crosspoint for potentially transferring weapons to Hezbollah, which means the Lebanese terror groups’ rearming project will be much harder to accomplish.
This is in addition to the fact that most of Iran’s presence has been removed from Syria out of fear of revenge from HTS, given that Iran fought on the side of the Assad regime since the Syrian civil war started in 2011.
IDF sources also said that there are signs that the HTS may completely expel Russia from Syria. Some observers have said that Moscow may try to renegotiate its presence under very different conditions, such that HTS would have real control of all of the territory and Russia would truly only serve as a guest helper if and when needed, but which retain some Russian foothold.
Besides Syria, the IDF said that prior to the November 26 ceasefire, it had eliminated basically all of Hezbollah’s Drone Unit 127 leadership, which means that that unit currently lacks the capability to carry out any complex or coordinated attacks.
While the IDF has previously said it destroyed around 70-80% of Hezbollah’s long-range and strategic weapons, in terms of its broader command structure, the percentage is said to be closer to 60-70% destroyed.
Next, IDF sources said that its past two attacks on Iran this year have greatly improved its likely success in the event any future attack on Iran is necessary.
Further, IDF sources said that there is heavy ongoing planning work going on to be ready to strike the Islamic Republic again if that becomes necessary.
On April 13-14 and again on October 1, Iran launched massive direct missiles and drone attacks on the Jewish state.
Israel counterattacked on April 19 and again with a much larger counter strike on October 26, which took out around 20 different Iranian anti aircraft and ballistic missile sites as well as one nuclear site.
This latest IDF statement on Thursday signaled that not only are Iranian air defenses weaker than they have been in years, but that the air force believes its direct experience in engaging Tehran has substantially improved its understanding about how to better manage such long range and complex attacks in the future.
Meanwhile, the IDF said that the air force’s report on the October 7 failure has been ready for some time and submitted to the IDF high command.
This follows prior statements by the IDF navy, land forces, and other portions of the IDF who have said even weeks ago that their October 7 reports had also been submitted.
It appears that IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi has held all of these reports on his desk until all IDF reports are in so that they can all be released at the same time, giving a comprehensive picture.
Many also anticipate that Halevi may resign around when he presents the October 7 reports, with the latest predictions for that being by the end of February.
Despite these predictions, the IDF previously committed to producing the October 7 reports by June and then by July-August.
However, after withering criticism of its Beeri October 7 report in July, Halevi recalculated the rollout of the reports so that any criticism of field commanders would only occur at the same time as criticism of himself and other top IDF officials.
Kurilla’s visit to Lebanon
In Lebanon, a top US military officer visited Beirut on Wednesday to monitor the withdrawal of the first Israeli troops from parts of southern Lebanon under a ceasefire agreement reached last month, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said and the IDF confirmed.
Army General Michael Kurilla, CENTCOM’s commander, visited the monitoring headquarters in Beirut for the ceasefire and met with the commander of Lebanon’s armed forces, General Joseph Aoun, CENTCOM said in a post on X.
Kurilla was there to monitor “the ongoing first Israeli Defense Forces withdrawal and Lebanese Armed Forces replacement in Al Khiam, Lebanon, as part of the agreement,” CENTCOM said.
“This is an important first step in the implementation of a lasting cessation of hostilities and lays the foundation for continued progress,” Kurilla said.
The US and France serve as monitors of a 60-day truce between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah that calls for a phased withdrawal of Israeli troops after more than a year of war.
Under the agreement, Hezbollah fighters needed to leave their positions in southern Lebanon to move north of the Litani River.
Regarding the Iran nuclear standoff, Iran has agreed to tougher monitoring by the UN nuclear watchdog at its Fordow site dug into a mountain after it greatly accelerated uranium enrichment to close to weapons-grade there, the watchdog said on Thursday in a report seen by Reuters.
“Iran agreed to the Agency’s request to increase the frequency and intensity of the implementation of safeguards measures at FFEP (Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant) and is facilitating the implementation of this strengthened safeguards approach,” the International Atomic Energy Agency said in the confidential report to member states.
It remains unclear whether Tehran’s latest concession is a true show of compromise or a fig leaf to try to distract from its recent increased nuclear violations at Fordow.
In Gaza, IDF Arabic Spokesperson Avichai Adraee told the residents of several areas of the Gaza Strip on Thursday evening to move to shelters as the IAF will begin striking terrorists and terror infrastructure in the area.
That warning came after an earlier announcement by the IDF that the air force had killed a senior Hamas official involved in weapons procurement as well as several other known terrorists who had been with him.
Earlier Thursday, two drones were launched at Israel. One from Yemen was shot down by the IDF on its way to Eilat and another one from either Yemen or Iraq was shot down over southern Israel.
Reuters contributed to this report.
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