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Trauma is driving much of Israel’s latest shift in West Bank policy, foreign policy expert and philanthropist Harley Lippman told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday, arguing that the events of October 7 left a lasting imprint on the psyche of Israel’s leadership.
On Sunday, the Israeli government reopened land registration in Area C of the West Bank for the first time since 1967. With an initial budget of NIS 244 million, the registration process in Area C is anticipated to take years and has been met with strong international criticism. Several countries, including Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, denounced the decision, which will make it easier for Israeli citizens to purchase land in the territory by declaring it state land.
After two years of sustained international criticism, Israeli leaders have increasingly adopted the view that they will be criticized regardless of their actions, Lippman said. As a result, he explained, they are choosing to prioritize physical security, even if it means “taking the risk of being a pariah nation.”
“October 7, I think, in some ways, is the most traumatic experience the Jewish people have had since Israel was destroyed in the year 70 AD… because on October 7, unlike in other massacres of Jews, it was preventable by Israel,” he explained. “Israel failed to protect its own citizens on that day, and I think that is hugely devastating for the Israeli psyche, and so I think that the leadership now is looking at things through those eyes and saying that deterrence doesn’t work anymore.”
“I think that they’re looking at this saying, ‘this happened in Gaza [and] they now have sufficient forces there, but Jerusalem, the West Bank, that’s where we’re vulnerable,’” Lippman shared.
Israel’s “arrogance” has repeatedly led to the country being taken by surprise in devastating attacks, he explained. In the Six Day War, with a shortened fly time to Cairo from 35 minutes to five, Israel thought its security was secured, but “less than seven years later, they’re surprised and initially, Israel was defeated, [because] the Arab armies had better technology.”
Lippman shared that he thought Israeli leadership was haunted by the knowledge that had October 7 gone entirely to Yahya Sinwar’s plan, Israel may not have survived. If Hezbollah had invaded from the northern border and if Palestinians in the West Bank joined the campaign of terror, “I don’t know if Israel could have survived that, even if they eventually won militarily.”
The widespread support for Hamas in the West Bank, which far outweighs support for the terror group in the Gaza Strip according to recent polls, means that the potential threat is perhaps too great for Jerusalem to ignore in a post-October 7 world, he explained.
A Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research survey published in October confirmed 87% of Palestinians in the West Bank oppose Hamas disarming, and a survey from the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS) conducted in September found 31% of those in the West Bank believed the abduction of hostages supported Palestinian goals and 56% believed Israel didn’t have a right to exist at all.
“I think a lot of Israeli planners are thinking the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) is useless. They don’t have a succession plan, they’re corrupt, and they’re ineffective. So Israel [knows] that there’s a void, and that’s why Hamas has far more credibility, respect, and followers in the West Bank than the Palestinian Authority does,” Lippman hypothesized.
Lippman: Sinwar was out for Holocaust 2.0
“Sinwar was out for Holocaust 2.0, so if you’re cynical and you don’t like [Finance Minister Bezalel] Smotrich and [National Security Minister Itamar] Ben-Gvir, and you don’t think it’s a good idea to have any talks, especially movement towards annexation, you’ll look at this with very cynical, distrustful eyes,” he continued. “If you think that, even if you don’t like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, Jerusalem needs a buffer,” then it’s far more understandable.
“Had Gaza had a buffer, they would have mitigated the massacre that occurred, if not have prevented it, ”Lippman theorized, explaining Jerusalem is feeling “vulnerable” right now and wanted to apply the lessons learned to other vulnerable borders.
“So, Israel is looking at it with very different eyes since October 7, and is focusing on prevention and being proactive rather than waiting,” he shared.
Highlighting the shifting change, Lippman recounted how a senior Israeli military official told him that during the Six-Day War and the Yom Kippur War, Israel’s priorities very much lay with not wanting to be the country known for attacking first.
“If Israel’s smart, they have to be proactive, because to wait and think you could recover is arrogance,” he shared. “What makes you think you could recover even in ‘73, look how close Israel was to being cut in two in the Golan Heights…That would have made it a lot more difficult for Israel to recover, and Israel would have had far more losses…So I think this has to be seen through the eyes of October 7, more than creeping annexation.”
Area C, which has a land area of around 3,300-3,500 square kilometers, makes up 60% of the West Bank. Asked why the West is focused on a conflict involving the small strip, Lippman claimed it was because it was yet another disagreement involving Jews.
The United Nations Security Council convened on Wednesday evening, only days after Israel first announced its decision to further entrench control, but the same council failed to respond as fast to the murder of tens of thousands of protesters by the Islamic regime, Lippman pointed out.
“When there was a genocide against the Jewish people in Israel on October 7, the whole world is outraged and in an uproar about Israel and condemning Israel for genocide and for defending itself. So I think Jews make news,” he shared. “Look at the UN when Israel was fighting its war in Gaza, they had an immediate convening of the Security Council. Now, you know what they say [for the situation in Iran]? ‘We’re closely monitoring the situation, we’re going to launch an investigation.’ Does that speak to compassion for these poor Iranians, these poor Muslims who are being massacred? No. So, I think it’s a it’s a stark example of the double standard.”
Despite acknowledging the issue of radicalization and corruption within Palestinian society and leadership, Lippman stressed his opinion that a Palestinian state is inevitable.
“They (the Palestinians) go to war, and they lose, but Israel also loses. Israel wins the war, as I said earlier, but they can’t win the peace, and that’s Israel’s big challenge and problem, and Israel has to focus on that,” he explained, adding that it would serve the Jewish state to place clear conditions for a Palestinian country like demilitarization.
Lippman recalled the Palestinians had frequently miscalculated and walked away from the possibility of statehood six times, citing the famous line by Israeli diplomat Abba Eban, “The Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.”
The Arab world, he continued, was beginning to understand that the deadline for the possibility of statehood was quickly approaching and had begun applying pressure as a result. However, the imagining of a Palestine must go beyond self-determination into the actual planning of a state, he continued.
“Let’s say you create Palestine in the West Bank, in Gaza. What do you think? Miracles happen? How do you make peace with people that want to kill you? You’re just making it (the threat) closer to Israel,” he explained.
“If I were Bibi (Netanyahu), I would embrace a Palestinian nation, two-state solution, but with conditions: It’s demilitarized. They give up the right to return. You have to focus on the educational system, because they teach people in elementary school math, for example, if you have 10 Jews and you kill eight, how many do you have left? You have to focus on education. Make those conditions. Don’t just be the one to say, ‘No, I know. We can’t reward terrorists.’”
Pointing again to historical examples, Lippman said it was the total defeat of Germany and the knowledge that the Allies had set foot in Berlin that led the population to accept defeat, leading the population to become averse to war. Berlin’s loss in World War I was primarily in the Western bloc, and the lack of total defeat meant the lesson hadn’t set in earlier.
“They were utterly and totally defeated and that’s how you have closure,” he explained. “There is also a logic, regardless of Netanyahu’s motives, in totally defeating Hamas militarily.”
The perpetual conflict and instability in the region is partially being kept alive by intellectuals, he claimed, as “they can’t grasp the notion that that’s how wars are resolved, one side defeating the other and the other side crying uncle and giving up…. Their emotion and compassion get in the way of logical thinking.”
While Israel has debatably won the war against Hamas and Hezbollah, despite not yet having achieved all the goals it set out for the conflict, Lippman acknowledged that there was a key front the Jewish state was sorely losing in: the diplomatic war.
The Trump administration has been largely silent over the new West Bank policy, though it has previously issued condemnations and assurances against similar actions. Lippman said he would be surprised if Netanyahu hadn’t personally requested that Trump refrain from commenting on the situation for now.
While the current leadership in Washington may be more understanding of Israel’s situation, leadership in the region and the world as a whole will likely be less receptive to Israel’s reasoning, Lippman explained.
“Jerusalem is such a sensitive issue in the Muslim world; it’s going rally radicalism all over the world against Israel, not just in the West Bank,” he theorized. “It hands a victory to Israel’s enemies and makes the Gulf nations less interested to work with Israel. So there are those people who argue that this is not in Israel’s best interest, that Israel is only digging itself in a deeper hole and is once again acting in a way that is self-destructive to Israel.”
However, Lippman acknowledged that on the flip side, many would happily accept “diplomatic isolation” in exchange for physical safety, returning to his earlier point that there is a feeling that Jerusalem will be criticized and marginalized regardless.
Israel can still turn the tide, Lippman claimed, but shared that “they’re a bit oblivious to public relations. There’s no excuse for Israel failing this badly… they’re not effectively communicating their message.”
“I think Bibi (Netanyahu) would have been much better served if he spoke about compassion for the Palestinians. So getting up there with the Israeli flags on either side and looking militaristic, that speaks to the insecurity of Israel, the Jewish people who want to be tough. And there’s value in that,” he analyzed, adding that while strength was something respected in the region, compassion and vulnerability were read better by the West.
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